We could all blame our housing issues in Montana on several factors; availability of building materials, rising interest rates, our local government, or even the influx of higher-salaried residents moving to Montana. Thanks to some data-backed research, we can now see why home appreciation prices are contributing to a wave of Montana transplants.

EBP Research, which has been following the trends in the national housing market since the beginning of COVID-19, explains the disparity between falling home prices in big cities on the west coast versus those elsewhere in the United States including Montana in this video.

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Noted several times in the video is the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which while reliable in showing home values in the 20 biggest markets, is also delayed as the latest data available is for September 2022. The main takeaway is that since April 2022, cities on the west coast are experiencing a rapid decrease in home values, which in turn is still leading to west coasters leaving for better housing opportunities elsewhere.

Credit: EBP Research via Youtube
Credit: EBP Research via Youtube

This affirms what we already knew what was happening, but now we have even more evidence of the cause. Home prices on the coast were skyrocketing before the Fed raised interest rates, but now they have sharply fallen. Now we can see why Montana was the #1 place to move to during the pandemic.

What Does It Mean For Montana?

Credit: EBP Research / Case-Shiller
Credit: EBP Research via Youtube / Case-Shiller / Realtor.com

We can see the Montana areas affected; Missoula, Gallatin and Ravalli County homes have been declining, while Billings, Flathead and Glacier Counties are seeing even more appreciation. The red dots are areas in which EBP has found home prices are declining in value since April 2022, while blue dots represent the opposite trend. Darker colors mean more change.

EBP Research predicts at the end of the video that home prices in the red areas will continue to decline through the first quarter of 2023, and that the blue areas will flatten out.

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